That would also have been my next guess.If you can't afford any downtime, ask the filesystem politely to please trim the free sectors
So run this on one of you test machines:
- migrate VM and keep i powered off
- set discard if not already set on all disks
- check if all disks are scsi and virtio scsi controller is set
- poweron the machine
- fstrim -va
- check thin provisioning
- if not good, try dd if=/dev/zero of=zero bs=64k; sync; sync; sync; rm -f zero in each mountpoint.